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Did the COVID-19 quarantine policies applied in Cochabamba, Bolivia mitigated cases successfully? an interrupted time series analysis

Publicated to:Global Health Action. 17 (1): 2371184- - 2024-12-31 17(1), DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2024.2371184

Authors: Arce Cardozo RK; Fonseca-Rodríguez O; Mamani Ortiz Y; San Sebastian M; Jonsson F

Affiliations

Biomedical and Social Research Institute, "Aurelio Melean" Medical School, San Simon University, Cochabamba, Bolivia. - Author
Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden. - Author

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted varied policy responses globally, with Latin America facing unique challenges. A detailed examination of these policies' impacts on health systems is crucial, particularly in Bolivia, where information about policy implementation and outcomes is limited. To describe the COVID-19 testing trends and evaluate the effects of quarantine measures on these trends in Cochabamba, Bolivia. Utilizing COVID-19 testing data from the Cochabamba Department Health Service for the 2020-2022 period. Stratified testing rates in the health system sectors were first estimated followed by an interrupted time series analysis using a quasi-Poisson regression model for assessing the quarantine effects on the mitigation of cases during surge periods. The public sector reported the larger percentage of tests (65%), followed by the private sector (23%) with almost double as many tests as the public-social security sector (11%). In the time series analysis, a correlation between the implementation of quarantine policies and a decrease in the slope of positive rates of COVID-19 cases was observed compared to periods without or with reduced quarantine policies. This research underscores the local health system disparities and the effectiveness of stringent quarantine measures in curbing COVID-19 transmission in the Cochabamba region. The findings stress the importance of the measures' intensity and duration, providing valuable lessons for Bolivia and beyond. As the global community learns from the pandemic, these insights are critical for shaping resilient and effective health policy responses. Main findings: The findings highlight the importance of stringent quarantine measures in managing infectious disease outbreaks, offering valuable insights for policymakers worldwide in strategizing effective public health interventions.Added knowledge: By providing a detailed analysis of testing disparities and quarantine policies’ effectiveness within a specific Latin American context, our research fills a critical gap in understanding their impacts on health system responses and disease control.Global health impact for policy and action: The findings highlight the importance of stringent quarantine measures in managing infectious disease outbreaks, offering valuable insights for policymakers worldwide in strategizing effective public health interventions.

Keywords

BoliviaCovid-19Covid-19 testingEvaluationHealth policyHealth serviceHumansInterrupted time series analysisLatin americaPandemicPandemicsPolicyQuarantineSars-cov-2Time-series

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Global Health Action due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency Scopus (SJR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2024 there are still no calculated indicators, but in 2023, it was in position , thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health.

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-07-02:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 6.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 6 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 1.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 2 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.

Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Bolivia; Sweden.